It is easy to observe in this demonstration that the alternative of bigger probability of occurrence is of that the two open store in the new Shopping, what will generate a surplus well more attractive, of what the option not to open the store. Now it imagines that you possess insigths that they make possible to mensurar, or the least to have an indication of which the probability of its competitor to open a store in shopping, let us say an information gotten next to the incorporator of the enterprise. In this situation you will be able to add the Probability of occurrence of the event. More info: Ben Silbermann . It is important to detach that Probability indicates a result that is not CERTAIN, but knowing the last events or understanding the structure of the phenomenon, we can have a certain reliable degree in our affirmation. To calculate the Probability you need to consider that 3 alternatives exist.
Case you do not have none another information the probability of occurrence of each event you are of 33% (1/3). Inserting the gotten information you will be able to more get a pointer of the probability adjusted the reality. Let us say that each information that it indicates that the competitor will open the store you determines that this alternative will be developed in 5%, that they will be reduced proportionally of the excessively alternative ones. Exemplificando: Alternative 1: It opens and the competitor not: 33% – 2.5% (5%/2) = 31.5% Alternative 2: The two open: 33% + 5% = 38% Alternative 3: The competitor only opens: 33% – 2.5% (5%/2) = 31.5% This demonstration lead in them to conclude that: 1 – To study the possible alternatives is basic for the success in such a way of the negotiation as of the result of action, project, etc 2 – To get information, to search, at last to remain themselves alert are basic to be able to choose correctly and to reduce the uncertainties.