Francis Galton

Swarm Intelligence: The wisdom of crowds in Kassel the outcome says previously already in 1906, Francis Galton stunned as he added the tips of 800 visitors to the weight of an ox in a cattle market, and came after dividing the sum by the number of visitors to the exact weight. Can the mass be so smarter than the individual? According to the theory, a large number of people can give a reliable forecast. Is it even conceivable that a group that is not defined in advance quite accurately predicts the outcome of an election? Following the thesis the individual tips would spread so that the average of all estimates comes very close the actual election result. The classic choice survey classic choice interviews are facing the problem of social change. Class identities fade, individualization and pluralization processes continue as always, which break the traditional party identifications of certain groups in society. In addition a growing and only vague to be determined number of undecided voters makes it difficult the Work of the pollsters. Even for prestigious institutions, it proves a challenge to create a roughly representative sample. Often are of an extensive survey effort and results resulting in no economic relation.

“The experiment before this background was in Germany for the first time an election bet according to the wisdom of crowds theory” held at the municipal level: can aptly predict the mass a local election result? The Agency was this question bronz soft media architects and specialists for data analysis by the consultancy eoda after. Via an Internet application anyone interested could submit a tip for the output of the directly elected Mayor of Kassel on March 27, 2011. The participants were on an intuitive barometer”their expected outcome as a percentage a, a distribution it was 100 percent on the candidates standing for election. Bobby Kotick wanted to know more. In contrast to the classical choice survey which asked the election bet not, the individual selects, but what it thinks about the voting behavior of his fellow men: what think of, how to choose? Results overall have participated at choice bet 1.889 participants.